Environment
Examples of challenges and opportunities
- Energy and global climate change
- Urbanization and quality of life
- Unsustainable resource use and biodiversity loss
- Natural disaster prevention
- Agricultural practices, environment and health
Below we present key facts, figures and critical questions on some of the challenges and opportunities for the Environment in 2030. These are initial examples that will be further developed as part of the Young Global Leaders engagement in the 2030 Initiative.
Energy and Global Climate Change in 2030
While the extent of global warming is a matter of debate, rising greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have environmental and socio-economic consequences that range from flooding due to rising sea levels to dislocation of agricultural and commercial activities. Several potential policy approaches have been put forward to address these issues, including the Kyoto Protocol, incentives to move towards more efficient vehicles and renewable energy sources, carbon trading markets, etc. But these have so far had only limited success.
The Kyoto Protocol is finally set to go into force. But can it deliver? And will this be sufficient or should other approaches be pursued? Is international emissions trading a cost-effective way to provide incentives to reach emissions targets? What will be the impact of increasing “carbon constraints” and related regulation on business? And what will its impact be on the automotive sector and on our mobility? Finally, which technological innovations (e.g. hydrogen powered fuel cell vehicles, nanotechnology-driven renewable energy, etc.) are most promising to abate global warming and how soon might they be implemented?
Experts argue over how soon global demand for oil will exceed supply. With geopolitical threats to the future of oil supply and changing patterns of energy consumption around the world, how will the world’s current dependency on oil evolve? Will investment in alternative energies only take off as a result of a global oil crisis? And if so, will the development of alternative energies be sufficiently advanced to respond to such a crisis and provide alternatives?
Key facts and figures
- The third assessment report of the International Panel on Climate Change estimates that the global average surface temperature rose by an average of 0.6°C over the 20th century and this is likely due to the increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The panel expects a mean global temperature increase of between 1.4 and 5.8°C by 2100.
- A recent report by the Arctic Council suggests that temperatures in the arctic region rose almost twice as fast as in the rest of the world over the last few decades and that they will rise by between 4 and 7°C by 2100.
- 10 million hectares of ancient forests are being cleared every year, thus reducing the available carbon sink.
- In 2002, two-thirds of the world’s final energy consumption came from fossil fuels (43% from oil). Global energy consumption has risen by 56% since 1973 and is expected to continue its steady increase over the next several decades, fuelled by economic expansion and development.
- The extraction, conversion to useful energy and combustion of fossil fuels releases into the atmosphere approximately 80% of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. Between 1973 and 2002, these emissions increased by more than 50%.
- In1998, the transportation sector accounted for 26% of global CO2 emissions. The transport sector’s share of emissions has grown faster than that of other sectors over the last 20 years.
References:
Baumert, K.A., Perkaus J.F. and Kete, N. Great Expectations: Can International Emissions Trading Deliver an Equitable Climate Regime?
Climate Policy 2003; Vol. 3 (2): 137-148.
International Energy Agency. Key Energy Statistics 2004.
Available at http://library.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/Textbase/nppdf/free/2004/keyworld2004.pdf
Global Business Environment, Shell International.
Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities, Scenarios to 2050. Exploring the Future, 2001.
Watson, R., ed. Climate Change 2001: Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001.
Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/
The Arctic Council. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004.
Available at http://www.amap.no/acia/index.html
Water in 2030
Water is becoming increasingly prominent on the global agenda. Freshwater resources are an essential component of the Earth’s ecosystems and indispensable not only for direct consumption and sanitation, but also for agriculture, industry, urban development, hydropower generation, inland fisheries and transportation. However, there are 1.2 billion people without access to safe water. Moreover, intensive use coupled with demographic pressures, gradual destruction and pollution of reservoirs could lead to increased scarcity in key regions. Transboundary water resources are also at the core of many latent conflicts. As scarcity increases, these could become a greater risk for geopolitical stability in the future. A combination of policy measures and technologies exist which could mitigate current and future threats to water availability. These include rational utilization schemes, water conservation and wastage minimization measures, flood prevention, sedimentation control, desalinization and trade in “virtual water”.
The future of water availability will depend on technological developments but also on how we address key policy issues. For example, would global regulations on water contribute to improving access and resolving related conflict? Is water a public good for collective utilization or an economic commodity? How can pricing mechanisms adequately contribute to efficient use and reduced scarcity, while ensuring access to the poorest communities? What are the critical determinants of environmental sustainability that should be respected for better water management and agricultural development? Are there trade-offs between using water for food production (irrigation) and environmental conservation?
Key facts and figures
- Unclean water, along with poor sanitation, kills over 12 million people each year.
- According to current trends in water consumption, humans will be using 70% of accessible freshwater sources by 2025 (compared with 54% today).
- On a global level, 69% of the water withdrawn for human use goes to agriculture (mainly irrigation), 23% to industry and about 8% is used for domestic purposes (household, drinking water, sanitation). These percentages vary by regions: in Africa, for example, agriculture takes up 88% of withdrawn water, while in Europe this sector only accounts for 33% with industry consuming the greatest share (54%).
- There are regional imbalances between freshwater availability and population size: Asia, for example has 60% of the world’s population, but only 36% of the world’s water resources. Of the 1.2 billion people without access to safe water in 2002, 40% were in the East Asia/Pacific region and 25% in sub-Saharan Africa.
- 2 million tons of waste per day is disposed of in freshwaters, including agricultural, industrial and human waste. Agriculture is responsible for most of the pollution (up to 70%) and for the depletion of groundwater, both of which are accelerating.
- The effect of global climate change may cause a reduction in water availability through less frequent and more erratic rainfall, more extreme weather conditions and groundwater pollution from flooding and increased temperatures.
References
Food and Agriculture Organization. 2000.
FAOSTAT Database, Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization.
Rosegrant M.W., Cai, X. and Cline, S. 2002.
World Water and Food to 2025: Dealing with Scarcity. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute.
The United Nations World Water Development Report 2003.
Available at http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdissues/water/WWDR-english-129556e.pdf
http://www.wateryear2003.org/
Urbanization and Quality of Life in 2030
Cities are rapidly growing all around the world. In the 1700s, less that 10% of the world’s population lived in cities. Now, about half of the world’s population is urban, and this percentage is likely to continue to rise at a rapid pace. Urban environments provide economic opportunities, but they also entail greater exposure to health threats such as air pollution, traffic accidents, disease outbreaks, precarious and overcrowded housing and crime. Another challenge of growing cities is the adequate management of solid waste. Rapid urbanization entails deep social transformations and the coexistence of communities at very different income levels. Finally, the Food and Agriculture Organization warned that urbanization would increase food shortages because infrastructures are not keeping up with the needs to feed massive numbers of people. Cities today occupy 2% of the earth’s surface but consume more than 75% of its resources.
What policies can respond to the challenges of managing rapidly growing urban environments and ensure continued delivery of public goods such as transport and sanitation? How should the social and sometimes also ethnic polarization of urban environments be reconciled? How can the security concerns of the elite and the needs of the slums be addressed? How can urban public space be used to create social capital?
Key facts and figures
- In 2002, 48% of the population lived in urban environments compared with 39% in 1980. A greater percentage of people live in cities in high-income countries (78%). However, urbanization is increasing rapidly in low and middle income countries and in absolute numbers; more people now live in urban areas in low-income countries than in high-income countries.
- Trends suggest that by 2030, 5 billion people (60% of the population) will live in cities. Population growth in the period 2000-2030 will occur primarily in urban areas mostly in the developing world. There will be at least 23 cities with more than 10 million inhabitants, 19 of them in the developing world, and several of these are likely to pass the 20 million mark.
- Rapid urbanization increases people’s exposure to environmental hazards as incoming populations settle in peri-urban slums devoid of adequate infrastructure and frequently located near traffic corridors or industrial plants. In 2001, 924 million people were estimated to live in slums in overcrowded and substandard housing without basic services. And every year, between 0.5 and 1 million people die prematurely due to diseases associated with urban air pollution.
- It is estimated that 30-60% of all urban solid waste in developing countries is not collected and less than 50% of the population is served. This poses key health and environmental concerns as uncollected waste accumulates or is disposed of in clandestine sites. As cities grow and available landfills move further away, sustainable waste management becomes even more difficult, exerting substantial pressure on municipal budgets.
References
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2004.
World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. New York: United Nations.
United Nations Human Settlements Program.
The Challenge of Slums - Global Report on Human Settlements 2003. 2004. New York: United Nations.